The Quarterly Hogs & Pigs report was released Thursday, December 23rd. The latest NASS/USDA report indicated a +0.5% or 384 thousand head increase in All Hogs & Pigs compared to last year, with the category for market hogs up +0.5% and the breeding herd up +0.1% for the December quarter. Overall, the report generally met market analysts' pre-report estimates. Compared to the previous quarter, the breeding herd fell 40 thousand head or -0.7%, while market hogs overall were down 211 thousand or -0.3% from last reported. Both market hog weight groups ranging from under 50 pounds to 119 pounds recorded increases of more than 1% from last year however both are lower than the previous quarter (-2.7% and -5.2% respectively), while heavier weight groups of up to 179 pounds and over 180 pounds were modestly under those reported year-ago (down around a half-percent) but are up +2.6% and +8.5% respectively over the previous quarter.
The September to November pig crop was reported at 35,238, up 2% over last year but dipped -0.6% from the previous quarter. Sow farrowing for the latest period was generally stable, down a modest -0.2% from a year earlier, while intentions are expected to continue at or above year ago levels for the next two periods (Dec-Feb & Mar-May). Pigs per litter continue to forge new historical highs at 11.92 pigs per litter reported for the September-November period, up +1.7% from the previous quarter, +2.2% on the year and a percent over pre-report estimates.
Revisions, as stated on the report:
“All inventory and pig crop estimates for December 2022 through September 2024 were reviewed using final pig crop, official slaughter, death loss, and updated import and export data. The revision made to the September 2024 all hogs and pigs inventory was 0.5 percent. A revision of 1.2 percent was made to the June-August 2024 pig crop. The net revision made to the June 2024 all hogs and pigs inventory was 0.4 percent. A net revision of 1.1 percent was made to the March-May 2024 pig crop. The net revision made to the September 2023 all hogs and pigs inventory was 2.2 percent. A net revision of 2.6 percent was made to the June-August 2023 pig crop."
