The USDA's latest Quarterly Hogs & Pigs report was released Thursday, June 29th and generally outlined modestly higher inventories overall compared to last year and were more than a percent above market analysts' pre-report estimates.
All Hogs & Pigs declined -1% or 715 thousand from the previous quarter which brings the category near even with last year, +0.1% or 80 thousand head higher compared to June 2022. Market hog weight groups recorded increases across all but slaughter-ready hogs compared to a year earlier, and were generally 1-2% over market expectations. Market hogs weighing 180+ pounds were half a percent under expectations though modestly under last year's inventory, down -0.2%. Kept for breeding edged 50 thousand head or +0.8% higher from the previous quarter, bringing the breeding herd 22 thousand head or -0.4% under year ago levels.
Farrowing for the Mar-May period was down -2.4% on the year, nearly 2% under expectations, while intentions for the next two quarters are expected to continue below year-ago levels.
Revisions, as stated on the report:
“ All inventory and pig crop estimates for June 2022 through March 2023 were reviewed using final pig crop, official slaughter, death loss, and updated import and export data. The revision made to the March 2023 all hogs and pigs inventory was 0.3 percent. The net revision made to the December 2022 all hogs and pigs inventory was 2.4 percent. A net revision of 3.0 percent was made to the September 2022-November 2022 pig crop. “